This webinar presents an introduction on using Monte Carlo Simulation to perform Quantitative Risk Analysis. We'll present a practical example of Cash Flow at Risk, including CAPEX, OPEX, production/sales and price risks, to show how you can quantify risks to improve your forecasts, planning, and overall management of a project with the use of probabilistic analysis.
Decision trees are structured decision models containing sequences of decisions and events. They allow us to graphically map the plan throughout the lifetime of a project, along with uncertain events in the future, managerial flexibilities of the project, and alternative strategies available. In most projects, there are several ways to gather more information before making an irreversible decision. Information gathering can be a complex process such as market research (in retail and manufacturing) or seismic tests (in oil and gas), or a very simple thing such as waiting for a competitor to launch a product first and measure the market acceptance. This webinar will demonstrate how to use decision tree models measure the value of information (VOI), both perfect and imperfect, and the consequences it brings to the decision process. All within Excel and in an intuitive way, but with all the necessary mathematical rigor.
About Rafael Hartke
Mr. Hartke is CEO of Imagine Risks and Analytics, a consulting firm specialized in risk modeling, project valuation and data analytics, and provider of consulting services to a wide range of industries, including energy, oil&gas, mining, and finance. Our job is to translate complex concepts of statistics and business in a simple and straightforward way. We believe in mathematics to explain the world, in the power of teamwork, and in ethics as a value.
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Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.