This presentation builds from the basics of defining cost and schedule in terms of baseline, uncertainty, and risk. We take the audience through the aggregation of cost and schedule Monte Carlo analysis in @RISK, to consider the combined cost and schedule risk analysis. We will review the combined cost and schedule output and the interpretation of the confidence levels through the application of @RISK. Finally, we'll discuss the realization that 50% cost and 50% schedule confidence does not equate to a combined 50% confidence level.
Presenter Dale Shermon is a QinetiQ Fellow and Head of Profession for Cost Engineering in QinetiQ Advisory Service (AS). Dale has presented training courses in fundamentals of cost estimating, hardware estimating, software estimating, life cycle cost, Cost Estimating Relationships, Information Technology, risk analysis and supplier assessment around the world, along with consulting. He is the author of the Gower publications “Systems Cost Engineering,” published July 2009, and “Cost Engineering Health Check: How good are those numbers?”, published in 2017.